A look ahead at 2nd quarter FEC numbers

At midnight last night, the 2nd quarter of the FEC fundraising year ended.  This will be the final, and most likely important quarter any candidate with a primary has.  This will be the last time they have to show potential donors they can raise money.  For many candidates there is that catch-22, show me you can raise money, then I will donate.

One thing to remember, money alone will not win an election, but you do need enough money to get your message and name out.  It is one thing to be out raised 5:1 when both candidates have plenty of money to get their message out.  Its something else all together when one out raises the other 5:1 and the later doesn’t have enough money to spread their message

1st Congressional District

Ann Kirkpatrick, Jeffrey Brown, Howard Shanker and Mary Kim Titla are all competing for the Democratic nomination.  After the first quarter, Kirkpatrick had a large financial advantage with $465k on hand with no competitor having more than $48k in the bank.  Since then she has been added to the DCCC Red-to-Blue program which should help with fundraising efforts.  Kirkpatrick raised $257k in the first quarter and if she can raise another $250k she should pretty much put this away.  With the size of this district and the cost of the media markets required, money may be more important here than any other district in the state.

On the Republican side Sydney Hay raised $98k and finished the first quarter with $222k in the bank while her opponent, Preston Korn, only had $10k in the bank.  Hay needs a good quarter to keep up with Kirkpatrick.  Hay has been able to rally the party behind her and now she needs to turn that support into cash.  One key number to watch will be $100k.  Hay’s campaign reported raising $100k at a single even the first week of this FEC period, so how much above $100k did she raise the rest of the period?

3rd Congressional District

Congressman John Shadegg and challenger Bob Lord have both proven they can raise money.  Shadegg raised $210k in the first quarter and finished with $937k in the bank while Lord raised $220k with $632k in the bank.  Both candidates will raise enough money to get the job done.  As long as Lord can continue to put up numbers like he did in the first quarter he will be fine.  One interesting thing to watch here is Shadegg and how much he is able to raise from colleagues.  When Shadegg was deciding if he should retire or not, well over a hundred of his colleagues and conservative groups signed letters to encourage him to run.  It will be interesting to see if he was able to capitalize on that financially.  While many people will be looking at this race and the FEC numbers with anticipation, Inside Edge thinks this race is less interesting in this aspect.  Both candidates have proven themselves and as long as Lord isn’t out raised by a huge number like 3:1 or more, not much will change in this race.

5th Congressional District

Harry Mitchell raised $322k in the first quarter and ended with $1.1 million in the bank.  That number was more than all his Republican opponents combined.  David Schweikert led the Republicans with $175k raised and $514 in the bank.  Jim Ogsbury reported $40k/$353k, Mark Anderson $55k/$69k and Laura Knaperek $50k/$44k.  Susan Bitter Smith entered the race after the first quarter had ended. 

Ogsbury has a good cushion in the bank thanks to a $250k loan and is going to need to prove he can raise money.  Mark Anderson had a decent first quarter for a competitive primary.  If one person can make the case that fundraising is not as important to their campaign it would be Anderson.  The state representative can count on his church connections and conservative grassroots organizations to help bolster his campaign on the ground. Talk to almost any Republican in the district and they will tell you Laura Knaperek should be right there with Schweikert as far as money raised.  She is an intelligent, likeable candidate, has experience and has some of the top money and a good staff in her corner.    Knaperek needs to put up a good number this quarter.  Susan Bitter Smith is the wild card in this race.  She came in late, the question will be was it to late.  Bitter Smith can grab all the low hanging fruit this quarter which is always the easiest so Bitter Smith more than anyone needs to raise a number that competes with, if not exceeds anyone else in the race for the quarter.

Another thing to watch in this race is expenditures.  Two of the candidates claim to have polls that show them as the strongest candidate.  A good poll cost $10-25k, so look for those expenditures on their reports.

8th Congressional District

Congresswomen Gabrielle Giffords has proved one thing, she can raise money.  With $1.67 million in the bank she has been one of the stars among the freshman class.  The surprise of the first quarter may have been senate President Tim Bee.  Bee, not known as a fundraiser, proved the skeptics wrong and was able to raise $466k and finish with $525k in the bank.  While Bee trails Giffords with cash on hand, as long as he can keep pace with Gifford’s efforts he should be ok financially.  This is going to be a key reporting period for Bee; he has now proven he can raise money.  The question now becomes can he maintain that pace?

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