Illegal immigration’s greatest victim may be GOP

In poll after poll, illegal immigration comes in as No. 1 on the list of issues concerning Arizonans. It's a subject that resonates across demographic lines: Republican or Democrat, male or female, urban or ex-urban. Even Hispanic voters will list this as a major concern. The term "wedge issue" seems almost invented for illegal immigration but probably not in the way the GOP has envisioned. This defining issue is now driving some of the most important fractures in the Republican Party's base and its impact is likely to be felt far beyond this year's presidential contest.

Although it was spectacularly ineffective in the 2006 cycle, many Republican politicians still see illegal immigration as a vehicle for advancement. Congress has its grandstanders like retiring U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado but Arizona locals have been sure to get in on the action. For instance, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has targeted Hispanic communities with sweeps designed to nab illegal immigrants but which also routinely net brown-skinned American citizens.

While these actions have a cheering section it's not among the swing voters who decide elections. That audience wants results but are uncomfortable when politicians like Arpaio say it's "an honor" to be compared to the KKK as he did on national television. They believe in securing the border but don't want to partner with groups and individuals that have been linked to the American Nazi Party or white supremacists.

The truth is, Arpaio is just the latest responder to an old political axiom: Defining issues cease to define if everyone agrees. You can't stand out by supporting apple pie and opposing rug burn. You have to be strident enough to prove your commitment to the base and outrageous enough to attract the attention of an increasingly jaded press. They are succeeding on their short-term objective and many Republican politicians have climbed on board for fear of getting run over.

The problem of course is that the further right the Party as a whole moves, the further its fringe must go to stand out. And so the spiral continues. The result of this sprint to the Right on immigration has been a growing divide between the GOP and the center of American politics. That is a problem for the GOP but only one of several that stem from this issue.

Evangelical voters who have been a critical part of Republican coalitions in the past are uncomfortable with the plain mean-spiritedness of the anti-immigrant movement but they also see assisting those in need as an important ministry. Economic conservatives see guest worker programs as a necessary way to meet manual labor needs and reject employer sanctions that can be draconic one-strike-and-you're-out solutions.

Naturally the biggest wedge is between the Republican Party and Hispanic voters. A demographic that can be socially conservative and was once in play for the GOP may be irreparably alienated by the branding that occurs every time Sheriff Joe goes on TV. In a state that is projected to be majority Hispanic by 2032, illegal immigration is the wedge that is likely to change the balance of power for decades to come.

David Waid is a former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, member of the Executive Committee of the Democratic National Committee and a veteran of top political campaigns from New York to California. He is a co-founder of Ziemba Waid Public Affairs in Phoenix, a firm specializing in lobbying, public relations, coalition building, grassroots and grasstops outreach, campaigns and ballot initiatives in the Western states.